Visual Step 5
Determine Model Expected T Number (MET #)


For systems with a 24-Hour Trend of "D" or "W", determine Pattern Evolution 
 - Slow (+/- .5)
   Normal (+/- 1.0) 
+ Rapid (+/- 1.5)
Apply appropriate number to Final-T from 24 hours ago.

Go to Step 6 
Example 1:
You believe the storm is developing rapidly.  24 hours ago, the Final T# was 2.0.  For "rapid development", you add 1.5 to the Final T# from 24 hours ago.  This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 3.5.
Example 2:
You believe the storm is weaking slowly.  24 hours ago, the Final T# was 5.5.  For "slow weakening", you subtract 0.5 from the Final T# from 24 hours ago.  This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 5.0.
Example 3:
You believe the storm is steady - neither developing nor weakening.  24 hours ago, the Final T# was 3.0.  For "steady state", you add 0.0 to the Final T# from 24 hours ago.  This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 3.0.
Example 4:
You believe the storm is developing slowly.  24 hours ago, the Final T# was 2.0.  For "slow development", you add 0.5 to the Final T# from 24 hours ago.  This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 2.5.
Example 5:
You believe the storm is weakening rapidly.  24 hours ago, the Final T# was 4.0.  For "rapid weakening", you subtract 1.5 from the Final T# from 24 hours ago.  This would give you a Model Expected T Number (MET) of 2.5.
Return to the top level EIR Dvorak Page
Return to main Dvorak Page
For More information, contact:
Paul  McCrone, Chief Forecaster
HQ Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 
Meteorological Satellite Applications
Office Code: XOGM
106 Peacekeeper Dr. STE 2N3
Offutt AFB, NE 68113-4039
Email:Paul.McCrone@afwa.af.mil
andPaulJMC@aol.com

WWW:
http://zephyr.unl.edu/~pmccrone
http://members.aol.com/PaulJMC/html
Phones:
COMM: (402) 294-2821
DSN: 271-2821
Fax:    (402) 294-5872


Many thanks to the University of Nebraska for hosting this page!